Crunching numbers to preserve the Great Barrier Reef

Associate Professor Francis Hui was shooting for the stars when he realised his true path to changing the world lay in learning the language of data, rather than observing distant galaxies.

The revelation came during a summer scholarship in astronomy at the end of his second year in university.

“For six of those eight weeks, all I did was teach myself how to fit straight lines to a set of points,” he recalls.

The hours spent studying the firmament made him ponder: “if astronomy requires so much statistics, why not learn the subject properly?”

The rest, as Hui says, “was history” —a history of how an aspiring physicist fell head over heels for statistical science. Today, having swapped stars for stats, he is cracking big data to tackle some of society’s biggest challenges.

Under the sea

Hui has devoted the past decade of his career to helping ecologists understand nature’s best-kept secrets.

His innovative statistical methods have supported experts worldwide in the interpretation of living organisms and their behaviours: from their distribution and movements to the way they respond to the ever-changing environment.

In Arctic Greenland, his research has shed light on the impact of climate change on plant communities; while in Chile, his insights have informed management policies of fisheries—leading a push towards more sustainable fish populations and economic growth in the country.

Now, one of his latest projects is putting the focus on Australia. Hui and his team are looking at ways to produce realistic, data-driven groupings of sites and species along the Great Barrier Reef.

“Ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef are rich and complex in structure. Grouping marine species that respond similarly to the environment can help practitioners break down that complexity to better assess the vulnerability of the reef to climatic- and human-induced pressures,” Hui explains.

“The problem is that existing statistical methods in ecology make overly simplistic assumptions about how animals interact with each other and the environment.

“That’s why our research aims to modernise these methods, so that they more authentically capture ecological processes and the complex relationships between species, space, and time.”

It’s estimated that the reef contributes more than $6.5 billion to the Australian economy and provides more than 64,000 jobs. Hui is determined to prevent a decline in these figures.

“With the new statistical tools and software we are developing, we hope to assist reef managers and stakeholders will be able to form more evidence-based policies that can ensure the sustainability of the world’s largest coral system,” he says.

“In the long term, our methods will be shared with ecologists and environmental managers in other countries, hoping to scale up the global understanding, monitoring, and evaluation of ecosystems at risk.”

Unsung heroes

When governments consider safeguarding the environment, the spotlight naturally falls on awareness campaigns, conservation efforts, and regulatory measures including curbing overfishing or tackling pollution.

Amidst these front-and-centre actions, statistics often play the role of a silent orchestrator.

 “Statistics is a means to an end and people are understandably more interested in the end,” Hui says.

“For most of them, what is impactful about statistics is not the data analysis and modelling itself but the social, ecological and economic implications drawn from the analysis.

“That’s why statistics tend to be underappreciated. We often work behind the scenes to bridge the data collection and the results taken up by government, domain experts and other stakeholders.”

But while statistics may not grab the headlines, the work remains vital.

“Statistical science is what underpins front line actions and it’s important that greater education and funding are invested to improve statistical methods and translational tools for practitioners,” Hui says.

“That being said, I don’t mind being an unsung hero. Statistical science as a discipline is altruistic: we are facilitators and helpers more than protagonists.”

A universal science

What Hui loves most about his job is that it allows him to play in everyone’s backyard.

“Statistical science drives discoveries across so many scientific and social disciplines, allowing me to apply my skillset to almost every situation where data is collected,” he says.

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Although marine ecology has been his primary focus, his expertise has also enriched other fields.

“My research has contributed to better statistical techniques by which distinct aspects of physical, mental and social well-being can be inferred from questionnaires – for instance, identifying how various aspects of job quality influence mental health over time,” Hui says.

Not stopping there, he has also devised techniques that allow experts to better predict mortality rates, something with profound commercial and societal implications.

 “The better we can forecast mortality rates across different demographics, the better insurance companies can price their policies and products,” he explains

“We are only just beginning to understand the long-term effects of climate change on different causes of mortality, and I am helping use statistics to better quantify how these effects will impact government spending on health.”

Whether responding to expert requests or driven by his sheer curiosity, Hui hopes to continue expanding the application areas of his research in the future.  

“Being able to collaborate and help experts across many disciplines translate data into real-world solutions and innovations is what inspires me to continue doing research in statistical science,” he says

“I am optimistic statistics is and will evolve to be resilient to technologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence.

“However, with great power comes great responsibility, and statistical scientists must also advocate for transparent communication and the ethical application of new techniques and technologies in evidence-based decision-making.”