What’s happening in Sudan?

Sudan currently teeters on the brink of full-scale civil war, a result of the intensifying rivalry between two principal military powers: the Sudanese Armed Forces under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group born from a militia led by Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Hamdan Dagalo.  

This internal strife, rooted in disputes over economic, historical and ideological factors, is reshaping the urban landscapes of the capital Khartoum and other regions of Sudan into combat zones, bringing about civilian casualties and an escalating humanitarian crisis.  

The volatile situation is further complicated by regional geopolitics, with nations such as Egypt, Libya, Chad, Ethiopia and the Gulf countries keeping a close eye on the unfolding conflict. 

Despite the removal of a three-decade-long dictatorship in 2019 and a subsequent de-escalation of ethnic conflicts in regions like Darfur, attaining a stable and peaceful Sudan appears to be an increasingly complex challenge under these circumstances.  

One might wonder, given the significant strides made in recent years, why does establishing lasting peace in Sudan still seem like a distant dream? 

Why was Sudan a dictatorship for 30 years and what ended it in 2019? 

In 1989, Omar al-Bashir seized power in a military coup and instituted a brutal dictatorship that lasted for three decades.  

Throughout his rule as president, Sudan was marred by severe human rights abuses, including the horrific genocide in Darfur, widespread political repression, media censorship and the denial of fundamental rights to women.  

Al-Bashir’s regime also induced a severe economic crisis due to rampant corruption, mismanagement and growing debt, leading to extensive poverty. 

A critical transformation took place in 2019, signaling the end of al-Bashir’s iron-fisted rule.  

Sparked by escalating living costs and the government’s indifference to the enduring Darfur conflict, a public uprising eventually succeeded in overthrowing al-Bashir.  

Despite the monumental victory, Sudan’s journey towards democratic civilian rule has been slow and fraught with challenges. The nation continues to wrestle with and recover from the oppressive remnants of al-Bashir’s regime. 

What went wrong after 2019? 

After the public uprising that removed al-Bashir in 2019, the nation’s military and political factions agreed on a transitional process towards reinstating democratic governance.  

This commitment was strengthened by the Juba Agreement for Peace, inked in October 2020, which sought to address protracted conflicts in Darfur, South Kordofan and the Southern Blue Nile regions. 

However, these strides towards democratic transition were disrupted in October 2021 by a military coup instigated by a faction within the transitional government. 

Fresh negotiations for a renewed transition to civilian democratic rule had started by April 2023, but disputes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces over transition plans escalated into violent confrontations in Khartoum. This conflict rapidly spread to other regions of the country, causing significant casualties and displacement. The stakes are now higher than ever, as the intensifying conflict between key military powers, regional influences and the humanitarian crisis intertwine. 

Until there is military reform and the various factions are integrated into a unified national force, achieving democracy in Sudan will be very difficult. 

These military entities, remnants of the previous dictatorship and shaped by a complex international and regional landscape, have risen to prominence, affecting the economy and seeking political validation. 

What are the humanitarian and economic costs of the ongoing crisis?  

This conflict exacerbates a precarious humanitarian situation in Sudan.  

A complex crisis rooted in decades of internal conflict, political instability, economic mismanagement and extreme weather events has led to widespread malnutrition, food insecurity, and an absence of health and educational services.  

Although the country already accommodates millions of internally displaced Sudanese, it also hosts refugees from neighbouring nations such as South Sudan and Ethiopia.  

According to the UN refugee agency, the recent conflict has caused an additional one million Sudanese to be internally and externally displaced. 

The economic impact of this crisis is also substantial. The conflict is decimating the country’s limited public infrastructure, particularly in Khartoum, the epicentre of severe fighting since April.  

Infrastructure damage is worsening water scarcity and crippling health services, leaving them ill-equipped to handle war casualties or provide basic services.  

While Sudan has a long history of international aid organisations operating within its borders, the intensity of the recent conflict, especially in Khartoum where most international organisations are headquartered, has significantly hampered these operations.  

Aid is trickling in, but at a slow pace and in inadequate quantities considering the urgent needs. 

How is the conflict impacting other countries, including Australia?  

Australia has a vested interest in halting the fighting, restoring peace and supporting democratic transition in Sudan.  

Sudan’s strategic location on the Red Sea and its proximity to the Suez Canal, a crucial channel for global trade, make stability in the region essential for maintaining global supply chains, particularly in the current economic environment of rising prices. 

Preventing this conflict from spilling over into neighbouring countries is also crucial for global security and stability.  

Many of Sudan’s neighbours grapple with internal conflict and political instability and the Sudanese strife holds the potential to reignite or amplify these issues.  

The human and economic toll demands urgent attention and resolution, and concerted international efforts are essential to bring stability to this pivotal nation.